12
Bow Draw
8yo Mare · 9-0 · OR 85
Saratoga · Race 8 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 1m
#3
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
2%
Place Prob
8%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 5 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.6 /10 (raw 4.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.2
Today:
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | Saratoga | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-09 | Saratoga | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-06-19 | Churchill Downs | ? | 2nd | 4th | −2 |
| 2026-04-18 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-03-06 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-02-22 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 13
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength78%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 13.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/10/2025 | 6th | 10/1 | 47% | 0% | -0.47 |
| 19/12/2025 | 5th | 40/1 | 0% | 60% | +0.60 |
| 04/01/2026 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 73% | +0.46 |
| 22/02/2026 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |
| 06/03/2026 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |
| 18/04/2026 | 3rd | 25/1 | 0% | 75% | +0.75 |
| 19/06/2026 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 80% | +0.01 |
| 09/07/2026 | 1st | 6/5 | 94% | 100% | +0.06 |
| 24/07/2026 | 3rd | 8/1 | 58% | 60% | +0.02 |