Iron Orchard
3yo Filly · 8-10 · OR 78
Saratoga · Race 9 - Johnstone Stakes · 7f
#4
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.4 /10 (raw 4.2)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-10 | Saratoga | ? | 9th | 4th | +4 |
| 2025-10-31 | Del Mar | ? | 9th | 4th | +4 |
| 2025-10-04 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 1st | -4th | +4 |
| 2025-08-22 | Saratoga | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-07-03 | Saratoga | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/07/2025 | 1st | 1/2 | 97% | 100% | +0.03 |
| 22/08/2025 | 1st | 4/7 | 97% | 100% | +0.03 |
| 04/10/2025 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |
| 31/10/2025 | 9th | 9/1 | 53% | 0% | -0.53 |
| 10/07/2026 | 9th | 6/1 | 68% | 11% | -0.57 |