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8

Naive Melody

4yo Filly · 8-12 · OR 93

Saratoga · Race 9 - Johnstone Stakes · 7f

#1

Rank

Odds

3/1

Win Prob

100%

Place Prob

96%

Rank

#1

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength0%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 2.5 /10 (raw 1.4)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.4
Today:
Class gap: -0.9
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Aqueduct 28/12/2024 · Pos 1st of 11 · OR - · 6f Slo 11928/12C6C5 @ Aqueduct 08/02/2025 · Pos 3rd of 5 · OR 101 · 7f Fas 118 · below its mark08/02/2025 · OR 101 par8/02C5OR 101C6 @ Aqueduct 25/04/2025 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 102 · 6f Fas 117 · beat its mark25/04/2025 · OR 102 par25/04C6OR 102C6 @ Aqueduct 12/04/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 92 · 6f 126 · beat its mark12/04/2026 · OR 92 par12/04C6OR 92C6 @ Saratoga 06/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 91 · 6f110y 126 · beat its mark06/06/2026 · OR 91 par6/06C6OR 91projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 8
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-06-06Saratoga?1st2nd−1
2026-04-12Aqueduct?1st2nd−1
2025-04-25Aqueduct?1st2nd−1
2025-02-08Aqueduct?3rd3rd0
2024-12-28Aqueduct?1st3rd−2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today28/128/0225/0412/046/06
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 8
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▲
Strength100%

What the projection says

Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 1st of 8. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
28/12/20241st11/1094%100%+0.06
08/02/20253rd11/1094%50%-0.44
25/04/20251st11/486%100%+0.14
12/04/20261st6/594%100%+0.06
06/06/20261st3/184%100%+0.16