4
Capital Theory
7yo Gelding · 9-10 · OR 75
Sligo · Carlsberg Optional Claiming Race · 1m 2f 100y
#1
Rank
Odds
25/1
Win Prob
19%
Place Prob
26%
Rank
#1
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength34%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Dropping 5 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 7.8 /10 (raw 4.9)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C7.2
Today:
Class gap: -0.6
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-21 | Curragh | BHA75 | 16th | 17th | −1 |
| 2025-10-12 | Naas | BHA68 | 1st | 1st | −0 |
| 2025-10-01 | Bellewstown | BHA70 | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2025-09-05 | Down Royal | BHA76 | 14th | 15th | −1 |
| 2025-08-06 | Sligo | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-07-21 | Ballinrobe | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 16
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength77%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 16. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/06/2024 | 9th | 14/1 | 26% | 0% | -0.26 |
| 23/08/2024 | 11th | 40/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |
| 22/10/2024 | 9th | 33/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 21/07/2025 | 2nd | 15/2 | 61% | 83% | +0.23 |
| 06/08/2025 | 6th | 7/1 | 63% | 55% | -0.09 |
| 05/09/2025 | 14th | 80/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 01/10/2025 | 3rd | 33/1 | 0% | 75% | +0.75 |
| 12/10/2025 | 1st | 25/1 | 0% | 100% | +1.00 |
| 21/10/2025 | 16th | 25/1 | 0% | 38% | +0.38 |