5
Concert Party
4yo Filly · 9-8 · OR 71
Sligo · Carlsberg Optional Claiming Race · 1m 2f 100y
#4
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
6%
Rank
#4
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲2
Strength31%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 9.9 /10 (raw 6.6)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C8.5
Today:
Class gap: -2.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-20 | Ballinrobe | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-07-14 | Killarney | BHA77 | 9th | 10th | −1 |
| 2026-04-18 | Bellewstown | BHA98 | 9th | 13th | −3 |
| 2026-04-02 | Clonmel | BHA99 | 7th | 11th | −3 |
| 2026-01-29 | Thurles | ? | 9th | 11th | −2 |
| 2026-01-12 | Punchestown | ? | 6th | 8th | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 16
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength32%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 8th of 16.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/10/2025 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 24/10/2025 | 10th | 12/1 | 37% | 18% | -0.19 |
| 27/12/2025 | 14th | 150/1 | 0% | 28% | +0.28 |
| 12/01/2026 | 6th | 150/1 | 0% | 64% | +0.64 |
| 29/01/2026 | 9th | 150/1 | 0% | 27% | +0.27 |
| 02/04/2026 | 7th | 20/1 | 0% | 60% | +0.60 |
| 18/04/2026 | 9th | 15/2 | 61% | 47% | -0.14 |
| 14/07/2026 | 9th | 80/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 20/07/2026 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |