Eastern Blue Bird
5yo Gelding · 9-6 · OR 59
Sligo · Carlsberg Optional Claiming Race · 1m 2f 100y
#16
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#16
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 6 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 9.8 /10 (raw 7.9)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-23 | Wexford | BHA85 | 7th | 9th | −2 |
| 2026-07-07 | Tramore | BHA62 | 5th | 5th | +0 |
| 2026-05-20 | Gowran Park | BHA63 | 11th | 11th | +0 |
| 2025-11-07 | Dundalk | BHA66 | 13th | 13th | −0 |
| 2025-10-16 | Curragh | ? | 9th | 11th | −2 |
| 2025-10-13 | Roscommon | ? | 8th | 10th | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 14th of 16. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/08/2025 | 4th | 25/1 | 0% | 70% | +0.70 |
| 19/09/2025 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 57% | +0.57 |
| 01/10/2025 | 8th | 150/1 | 0% | 30% | +0.30 |
| 13/10/2025 | 8th | 66/1 | 0% | 30% | +0.30 |
| 16/10/2025 | 9th | 250/1 | 0% | 27% | +0.27 |
| 07/11/2025 | 13th | 50/1 | 0% | 8% | +0.08 |
| 20/05/2026 | 11th | 66/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |
| 07/07/2026 | 5th | 66/1 | 0% | 60% | +0.60 |
| 23/07/2026 | 7th | 12/1 | 37% | 33% | -0.04 |