13

Miss Australie

5yo Mare · 9-6 · OR 61

Sligo · Carlsberg Optional Claiming Race · 1m 2f 100y

#9

Rank

Odds

8/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#9

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Fair mare. Winner at Roscommon in May. Below-form eighth of 13 in handicap at Ballinrobe (13f, good to soft, 8/1) 44 days ago, merely passing beaten rivals.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move
Strength51%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.

Held its own mid-division in 4 of 6 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 1 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 7.6 /10 (raw 7.7)

Highest class: BHA53
Recent avg: C5.9
Today:
Class gap: +0.6
Higher-class runs: 6
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackBHA63 @ Curragh 16/10/2025 · Pos 12th of 19 · OR 63 · 1m6f Yie 133 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark16/10/2025 · OR 63 par16/1063OR 63BHA60 @ Dundalk 05/11/2025 · Pos 8th of 13 · OR 60 · 1m2f150y Std 142 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark05/11/2025 · OR 60 parBHA57 @ Dundalk 26/11/2025 · Pos 6th of 11 · OR 57 · 2m Std 139 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark26/11/2025 · OR 57 par26/1157OR 57BHA55 @ Dundalk 05/12/2025 · Pos 14th of 14 · OR 55 · 1m4f Std 137 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark05/12/2025 · OR 55 parBHA59 @ Gowran Park 22/04/2026 · Pos 11th of 13 · OR 59 · 1m5f160y Sft 141 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark22/04/2026 · OR 59 par22/0459OR 59BHA58 @ Ballinrobe 08/05/2026 · Pos 6th of 14 · OR 58 · 1m1f133y Goo 140 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark08/05/2026 · OR 58 parBHA57 @ Roscommon 18/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 16 · OR 57 · 1m4f17y Yie 139 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark18/05/2026 · OR 57 par18/0557OR 57BHA62 @ Limerick 10/06/2026 · Pos 10th of 14 · OR 62 · 2m1f Yie 132 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark10/06/2026 · OR 62 parBHA62 @ Ballinrobe 22/06/2026 · Pos 8th of 13 · OR 62 · 1m5f Yie 133 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark22/06/2026 · OR 62 par22/0662OR 62projClass-projected finish: 5th of 16
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-06-22BallinrobeBHA628th8th+0
2026-06-10LimerickBHA6210th10th+0
2026-05-18RoscommonBHA571st0th+1
2026-05-08BallinrobeBHA586th5th+1
2026-04-22Gowran ParkBHA5911th10th+1
2025-12-05DundalkBHA5514th13th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today16/105/1218/0522/06
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 16
OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend
Strength80%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 7th of 16. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
16/10/202512th16/116%39%+0.23
05/11/20258th11/271%42%-0.29
26/11/20256th12/137%50%+0.13
05/12/202514th12/137%0%-0.37
22/04/202611th16/116%17%+0.01
08/05/20266th33/10%62%+0.62
18/05/20261st6/168%100%+0.32
10/06/202610th28/10%31%+0.31
22/06/20268th8/158%42%-0.16