1
Alice Monet
4yo Filly · 10-0 · OR 96
Sligo · Irish Stallion Farms EBF Connacht Oaks Fillies Handicap · 1m 2f 100y
#1
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
90%
Place Prob
64%
Rank
#1
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength8%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 4.2 /10 (raw 4.2)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C5.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-26 | Dundalk | 1 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2025-08-21 | York | 1 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-07-24 | Leopardstown | BHA87 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-07-09 | Fairyhouse | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-05-29 | Fairyhouse | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-02-21 | Dundalk | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 6
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength24%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/02/2025 | 6th | 18/1 | 5% | 50% | +0.45 |
| 29/05/2025 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 25% | +0.09 |
| 09/07/2025 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 24/07/2025 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 21/08/2025 | 4th | 7/1 | 63% | 63% | -0.01 |
| 26/09/2025 | 9th | 12/1 | 37% | 33% | -0.04 |