2
Chica Guerrera
4yo Filly · 9-11 · OR 93
Sligo · Irish Stallion Farms EBF Connacht Oaks Fillies Handicap · 1m 2f 100y
#4
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
7%
Rank
#4
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength7%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 6.5 /10 (raw 6.2)
Highest class: BHA53
Recent avg: C8.1
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-31 | Galway | BHA93 | 14th | 14th | 0 |
| 2026-06-20 | Down Royal | BHA79 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-01 | Gowran Park | BHA79 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-15 | Leopardstown | BHA80 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-03 | Sligo | BHA78 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-04-03 | Curragh | BHA79 | 15th | 15th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 6
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength3%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 5th of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/10/2025 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 83% | -0.02 |
| 21/10/2025 | 3rd | 18/1 | 5% | 92% | +0.86 |
| 02/11/2025 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 91% | +0.54 |
| 03/04/2026 | 15th | 12/1 | 37% | 18% | -0.19 |
| 03/05/2026 | 2nd | 13/2 | 66% | 89% | +0.23 |
| 15/05/2026 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 70% | -0.04 |
| 01/06/2026 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 71% | -0.08 |
| 20/06/2026 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 31/07/2026 | 14th | 20/1 | 0% | 24% | +0.24 |