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4

Spanish Temptress

4yo Filly · 9-6 · OR 88

Sligo · Irish Stallion Farms EBF Connacht Oaks Fillies Handicap · 1m 2f 100y

#5

Rank

Odds

10/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

3%

Rank

#5

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Better than ever this summer, resuming winning ways when making all at Limerick in June. Excellent second at Killarney 3 weeks ago, finding only an unexposed 3-y-o too good. Seems best in the mud, so rain would increase her chance.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength23%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 4.7 /10 (raw 6.2)

Highest class: BHA60
Recent avg: C8.2
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackBHA81 @ Curragh 02/11/2025 · Pos 16th of 23 · OR 81 · 1m Hvy 124 · below its mark02/11/2025 · OR 81 par2/1181OR 81BHA81 @ Curragh 28/03/2026 · Pos 6th of 14 · OR 81 · 1m Sft 141 · below its mark28/03/2026 · OR 81 parBHA80 @ Gowran Park 08/04/2026 · Pos 3rd of 16 · OR 80 · 7f180y Sft 140 · below its mark08/04/2026 · OR 80 par8/0480OR 80BHA79 @ Limerick 25/04/2026 · Pos 2nd of 16 · OR 79 · 1m50y Yie 129 · below its mark25/04/2026 · OR 79 parBHA81 @ Curragh 24/05/2026 · Pos 17th of 19 · OR 81 · 1m Gd 141 · below its mark24/05/2026 · OR 81 par24/0581OR 81BHA79 @ Gowran Park 01/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 79 · 1m1f120y Yie 129 · below its mark01/06/2026 · OR 79 parBHA82 @ Leopardstown 11/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 13 · OR 82 · 1m1f Sft 142 · below its mark11/06/2026 · OR 82 par11/0682OR 82BHA82 @ Limerick 19/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 82 · 1m Sft 142 · beat its mark19/06/2026 · OR 82 parBHA88 @ Killarney 14/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 88 · 1m3f88y Gd 140 · below its mark14/07/2026 · OR 88 par14/0788OR 88projClass-projected finish: 1st of 6
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-14KillarneyBHA882nd2nd0
2026-06-19LimerickBHA821st1st0
2026-06-11LeopardstownBHA824th4th0
2026-06-01Gowran ParkBHA792nd2nd0
2026-05-24CurraghBHA8117th17th0
2026-04-25LimerickBHA792nd2nd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today2/1125/0411/0614/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 6
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength56%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 6.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
02/11/202516th14/126%32%+0.05
28/03/20266th14/126%62%+0.35
08/04/20263rd15/261%87%+0.26
25/04/20262nd15/261%93%+0.33
24/05/202617th7/282%11%-0.70
01/06/20262nd13/266%86%+0.20
11/06/20264th10/382%75%-0.07
19/06/20261st13/891%100%+0.09
14/07/20262nd10/147%88%+0.40