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5

Thatwilldoso

5yo Mare · 8-10 · OR 78

Sligo · Irish Stallion Farms EBF Connacht Oaks Fillies Handicap · 1m 2f 100y

#2

Rank

Odds

13/2

Win Prob

7%

Place Prob

18%

Rank

#2

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Three-time winner in 2025 and following the same path this time around, capitalising on drop in grade to land Roscommon handicap for second year running in late June. Went very close to recording back-to-back wins at Galway on Saturday and should go well again (good second in this last year).

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength15%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 4.8 /10 (raw 5.5)

Highest class: BHA59
Recent avg: C7.7
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackBHA72 @ Galway 02/08/2025 · Pos 1st of 18 · OR 72 · 1m3f180y Yie 133 · beat its mark02/08/2025 · OR 72 par2/0872OR 72BHA72 @ Sligo 06/08/2025 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 72 · 1m2f129y Goo 131 · below its mark06/08/2025 · OR 72 parBHA78 @ Listowel 22/09/2025 · Pos 6th of 11 · OR 78 · 1m3f15y Hvy 119 · below its mark22/09/2025 · OR 78 par22/0978OR 78BHA78 @ Naas 12/10/2025 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR 78 · 1m2f125y Yie 135 · below its mark12/10/2025 · OR 78 parBHA79 @ Leopardstown 15/04/2026 · Pos 9th of 12 · OR 79 · 1m2f Yie 129 · below its mark15/04/2026 · OR 79 par15/0479OR 79BHA78 @ Cork 03/05/2026 · Pos 10th of 15 · OR 78 · 1m4f30y Sft 119 · below its mark03/05/2026 · OR 78 parBHA75 @ Ballinrobe 22/06/2026 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR 75 · 1m5f Yie 125 · below its mark22/06/2026 · OR 75 par22/0675OR 75BHA72 @ Roscommon 30/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 13 · OR 72 · 1m2f63y Goo 132 · beat its mark30/06/2026 · OR 72 parBHA78 @ Galway 01/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 16 · OR 78 · 1m3f180y Yie 138 · below its mark01/08/2026 · OR 78 par1/0878OR 78projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 6
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-01GalwayBHA782nd2nd0
2026-06-30RoscommonBHA721st1st0
2026-06-22BallinrobeBHA755th5th0
2026-05-03CorkBHA7810th10th0
2026-04-15LeopardstownBHA799th9th0
2025-10-12NaasBHA782nd2nd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today2/0812/1022/061/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 6
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength82%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 6.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
02/08/20251st10/147%100%+0.53
06/08/20252nd10/382%80%-0.02
22/09/20256th9/153%50%-0.03
12/10/20252nd11/142%89%+0.47
15/04/20269th10/147%27%-0.20
03/05/202610th20/10%36%+0.36
22/06/20265th12/137%43%+0.06
30/06/20261st4/179%100%+0.21
01/08/20262nd13/266%93%+0.28