11
Lucy's Promise
2yo Filly · 8-8 · OR 66
Sligo · Irish EBF Auction Series Maiden · 6f
#9
Rank
Odds
11/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#9
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength13%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 8.0 /10 (raw 8.3)
Highest class: BHA71
Recent avg: C7.8
Today:
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-19 | Curragh | BHA71 | 8th | 7th | +1 |
| 2026-07-11 | Navan | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-07-02 | Bellewstown | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-06-12 | Fairyhouse | ? | 12th | 12th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 13
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength19%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 10th of 13. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/06/2026 | 12th | 100/1 | 0% | 31% | +0.31 |
| 02/07/2026 | 7th | 80/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 11/07/2026 | 6th | 150/1 | 0% | 69% | +0.69 |
| 19/07/2026 | 8th | 11/2 | 71% | 0% | -0.71 |