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7

Woodlawn Lily

2yo Filly · 9-5 · OR 63

Sligo · John Gilligan Memorial Nursery Handicap · 6f

#7

Rank

Odds

22/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#7

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Showed ability on debut (heavy) but well held on her next 2 starts. However, took a step back in the right direction when fifth on nursery debut at the Curragh and forecast rain could prove to be in her favour.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 5.5 /10 (raw 5.5)

Highest class: BHA66
Recent avg: C7.7
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Cork 04/04/2026 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR - · 5f Sft 1284/04C8C8 @ Naas 09/05/2026 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR - · 5f Gd 1289/05C8C8 @ Naas 04/07/2026 · Pos 7th of 7 · OR - · 5f Goo 1284/07C8BHA66 @ Curragh 19/07/2026 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR 66 · 6f GF 119 · below its mark19/07/2026 · OR 66 par19/0766OR 66projClass-projected finish: 4th of 13
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-19CurraghBHA665th5th0
2026-07-04Naas?7th7th0
2026-05-09Naas?6th6th0
2026-04-04Cork?4th4th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today4/049/054/0719/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 13
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength23%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 7th of 13. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
04/04/20264th25/10%40%+0.40
09/05/20266th15/261%17%-0.44
04/07/20267th66/10%0%0.00
19/07/20265th22/10%43%+0.43