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5

Glen Breeze

3yo Gelding · 9-11 · OR 55

Sligo · Baader - Eddie Carr PBR 2000 Handicap (0-60) · 6f

#1

Rank

Odds

7/1

Win Prob

99%

Place Prob

78%

Rank

#1

★★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Confirmed previous promise when winning 14-runner handicap at Limerick (7f, good to firm) last month. Creditable sixth of 16 in similar event at Gowran (7f, good to firm) since. Yard having good spell.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength34%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 6.0 /10 (raw 7.4)

Highest class: BHA44
Recent avg: C4.7
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Curragh 15/03/2026 · Pos 11th of 16 · OR - · 6f Hvy 13315/03C8BHA55 @ Bellewstown 11/04/2026 · Pos 7th of 15 · OR 55 · 5f3y Sft 126 · beat its mark11/04/2026 · OR 55 parBHA53 @ Gowran Park 22/04/2026 · Pos 6th of 12 · OR 53 · 7f Sft 132 · beat its mark22/04/2026 · OR 53 par22/0453OR 53BHA50 @ Navan 16/05/2026 · Pos 14th of 17 · OR 50 · 5f180y Yie 124 · beat its mark16/05/2026 · OR 50 parBHA44 @ Fairyhouse 05/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 17 · OR 44 · 6f Goo 120 · beat its mark05/06/2026 · OR 44 par5/0644OR 44BHA45 @ Fairyhouse 12/06/2026 · Pos 10th of 15 · OR 45 · 6f Goo 119 · beat its mark12/06/2026 · OR 45 parBHA44 @ Fairyhouse 01/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 17 · OR 44 · 6f Goo 120 · beat its mark01/07/2026 · OR 44 par1/0744OR 44BHA46 @ Limerick 11/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 14 · OR 46 · 6f150y Gd 126 · beat its mark11/07/2026 · OR 46 parBHA55 @ Gowran Park 25/07/2026 · Pos 6th of 16 · OR 55 · 7f Goo 130 · beat its mark25/07/2026 · OR 55 par25/0755OR 55projClass-projected finish: 1st of 14
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-25Gowran ParkBHA556th6th0
2026-07-11LimerickBHA461st1st0
2026-07-01FairyhouseBHA443rd3rd0
2026-06-12FairyhouseBHA4510th10th0
2026-06-05FairyhouseBHA442nd2nd0
2026-05-16NavanBHA5014th14th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today15/0316/051/0725/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 14
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength67%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 14. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
15/03/202611th125/10%33%+0.33
11/04/20267th28/10%57%+0.57
22/04/20266th10/147%55%+0.07
16/05/202614th10/147%19%-0.29
05/06/20262nd17/255%94%+0.38
12/06/202610th9/153%36%-0.17
01/07/20263rd11/142%88%+0.45
11/07/20261st5/287%100%+0.13
25/07/20266th7/163%67%+0.04