10
Luminessa
3yo Filly · 9-0 · OR 44
Sligo · Baader - Eddie Carr PBR 2000 Handicap (0-60) · 6f
#3
Rank
Odds
28/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
5%
Rank
#3
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength20%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 7.0 /10 (raw 6.7)
Highest class: BHA44
Recent avg: C6.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-03 | Naas | BHA44 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-06-12 | Fairyhouse | BHA49 | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-06-05 | Fairyhouse | BHA52 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-04-23 | Dundalk | BHA57 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-02-27 | Dundalk | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-02-11 | Dundalk | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 14
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength38%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 5th of 14.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/12/2025 | 5th | 40/1 | 0% | 69% | +0.69 |
| 11/02/2026 | 7th | 14/1 | 26% | 50% | +0.24 |
| 27/02/2026 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 64% | +0.48 |
| 23/04/2026 | 5th | 7/1 | 63% | 43% | -0.20 |
| 05/06/2026 | 7th | 33/1 | 0% | 63% | +0.63 |
| 12/06/2026 | 10th | 22/1 | 0% | 40% | +0.40 |
| 03/08/2026 | 8th | 28/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |