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11

Canon Law

3yo Gelding · 8-7 · OR 43

Sligo · Guinness Handicap · 1m 5f 56y

#6

Rank

Odds

7/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#6

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Creditable fifth of 12 in handicap (7/1) at Cork (1½m, good to firm) 12 days ago. Not taken lightly despite being 2 lb out of the weights.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength28%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 6.0 /10 (raw 6.8)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.3
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Navan 26/04/2025 · Pos 11th of 12 · OR - · 5f180y Sft 13326/04C8C8 @ Curragh 23/05/2025 · Pos 21st of 21 · OR - · 6f Goo 127C8 @ Roscommon 01/07/2025 · Pos 12th of 15 · OR - · 7f94y Yie 1271/07C8BHA45 @ Gowran Park 20/10/2025 · Pos 5th of 15 · OR 45 · 7f Hvy 123 · beat its mark20/10/2025 · OR 45 parBHA44 @ Gowran Park 01/06/2026 · Pos 12th of 12 · OR 44 · 1m1f120y Yie 124 · beat its mark01/06/2026 · OR 44 par1/0644OR 44BHA43 @ Ballinrobe 22/06/2026 · Pos 6th of 14 · OR 43 · 1m1f163y Yie 123 · beat its mark22/06/2026 · OR 43 parBHA42 @ Naas 04/07/2026 · Pos 6th of 16 · OR 42 · 1m2f194y Goo 122 · beat its mark04/07/2026 · OR 42 par4/0742OR 42BHA41 @ Killarney 13/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 14 · OR 41 · 1m3f73y Gd 121 · beat its mark13/07/2026 · OR 41 parBHA43 @ Cork 24/07/2026 · Pos 5th of 12 · OR 43 · 1m4f GF 123 · beat its mark24/07/2026 · OR 43 par24/0743OR 43projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 11
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-24CorkBHA435th5th0
2026-07-13KillarneyBHA412nd2nd0
2026-07-04NaasBHA426th6th0
2026-06-22BallinrobeBHA436th6th0
2026-06-01Gowran ParkBHA4412th12th0
2025-10-20Gowran ParkBHA455th5th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today26/0420/104/0724/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 11
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 11. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
26/04/202511th150/10%9%+0.09
23/05/202521st150/10%0%0.00
01/07/202512th250/10%21%+0.21
20/10/20255th25/10%71%+0.71
01/06/202612th28/10%0%0.00
22/06/20266th33/10%62%+0.62
04/07/20266th25/10%67%+0.67
13/07/20262nd14/126%92%+0.66
24/07/20265th7/163%64%+0.00