1
Chicago Moon
3yo Filly · 10-0 · OR 66
Sligo · Guinness Handicap · 1m 5f 56y
#1
Rank
Odds
11/2
Win Prob
100%
Place Prob
93%
Rank
#1
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength10%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 5.0 /10 (raw 5.0)
Highest class: BHA57
Recent avg: C7.1
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-13 | Killarney | BHA57 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-05-12 | Killarney | BHA58 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-04-01 | Dundalk | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-02-27 | Dundalk | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-01-28 | Dundalk | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 11
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength84%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 11. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/01/2026 | 9th | 20/1 | 0% | 38% | +0.38 |
| 27/02/2026 | 3rd | 25/1 | 0% | 83% | +0.83 |
| 01/04/2026 | 7th | 28/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 12/05/2026 | 5th | 11/1 | 42% | 60% | +0.18 |
| 13/07/2026 | 1st | 11/2 | 71% | 100% | +0.29 |