10

Curious Jane

3yo Filly · 8-7 · OR 45

Sligo · Guinness Handicap · 1m 5f 56y

#11

Rank

Odds

18/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#11

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Maiden who again ran to just a poor level in first-time cheekpieces when fifth of 9 in handicap at Ballinrobe (9.6f, good, 18/1) 16 days ago. Significantly up in trip.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move
Strength8%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 9.8 /10 (raw 9.8)

Highest class: BHA48
Recent avg: C6.7
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Dundalk 12/12/2025 · Pos 12th of 12 · OR - · 7f Std 12112/12C8C8 @ Dundalk 28/01/2026 · Pos 12th of 14 · OR - · 1m2f150y Std 12928/01C8C8 @ Limerick 25/04/2026 · Pos 11th of 13 · OR - · 7f50y Yie 12925/04C8BHA49 @ Leopardstown 18/06/2026 · Pos 9th of 15 · OR 49 · 1m1f GF 120 · beat its mark18/06/2026 · OR 49 par18/0649OR 49BHA48 @ Ballinrobe 20/07/2026 · Pos 5th of 9 · OR 48 · 1m1f135y Goo 122 · beat its mark20/07/2026 · OR 48 par20/0748OR 48projClass-projected finish: 7th of 11
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-20BallinrobeBHA485th5th0
2026-06-18LeopardstownBHA499th9th0
2026-04-25Limerick?11th11th0
2026-01-28Dundalk?12th12th0
2025-12-12Dundalk?12th12th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today12/1228/0125/0418/0620/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 11
OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend
Strength64%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 6th of 11. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
12/12/202512th28/10%0%0.00
28/01/202612th150/10%15%+0.15
25/04/202611th300/10%17%+0.17
18/06/20269th50/10%43%+0.43
20/07/20265th18/15%50%+0.45