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8

Ellens Bay

3yo Filly · 9-2 · OR 54

Sligo · Guinness Handicap · 1m 5f 56y

#10

Rank

Odds

100/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#10

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Down the field in a trio of maidens and decent step forward required now handicapping over a longer trip.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength0%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.

Class-adjusted form 10.7 /10 (raw 10.7)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Dundalk 29/10/2025 · Pos 11th of 14 · OR - · 7f Std 12829/10C8C8 @ Dundalk 11/02/2026 · Pos 11th of 13 · OR - · 7f Std 12911/02C8C8 @ Roscommon 30/06/2026 · Pos 10th of 12 · OR - · 7f94y Goo 12930/06C8projClass-projected finish: 10th of 11
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-06-30Roscommon?10th10th0
2026-02-11Dundalk?11th11th0
2025-10-29Dundalk?11th11th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today29/1011/0230/06
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish11th of 11
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength14%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 11th of 11. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
29/10/202511th150/10%23%+0.23
11/02/202611th66/10%17%+0.17
30/06/202610th100/10%18%+0.18