3
Private Larry
3yo Gelding · 9-11 · OR 63
Sligo · Guinness Handicap · 1m 5f 56y
#3
Rank
Odds
13/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#3
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength24%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 8.8 /10 (raw 9.3)
Highest class: BHA52
Recent avg: C6.3
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-17 | Killarney | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-03 | Bellewstown | BHA52 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-18 | Leopardstown | BHA52 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-06-01 | Gowran Park | BHA55 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-03-30 | Navan | BHA60 | 13th | 13th | 0 |
| 2026-03-15 | Curragh | ? | 20th | 20th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 11
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 11. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/10/2025 | 11th | 50/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 28/01/2026 | 10th | 66/1 | 0% | 31% | +0.31 |
| 15/03/2026 | 20th | 125/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |
| 30/03/2026 | 13th | 40/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 01/06/2026 | 8th | 50/1 | 0% | 46% | +0.46 |
| 18/06/2026 | 8th | 33/1 | 0% | 46% | +0.46 |
| 03/07/2026 | 1st | 20/1 | 0% | 100% | +1.00 |
| 17/07/2026 | 3rd | 13/2 | 66% | 82% | +0.16 |