4
Sonny Corleone
3yo Gelding · 9-11 · OR 63
Sligo · Guinness Handicap · 1m 5f 56y
#4
Rank
Odds
13/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#4
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 6.3 /10 (raw 6.3)
Highest class: BHA65
Recent avg: C7.6
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-12 | Dundalk | BHA65 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-05-29 | Down Royal | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-01-28 | Dundalk | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-11-26 | Dundalk | ? | 10th | 10th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 11
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength33%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 5th of 11. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/11/2025 | 10th | 300/1 | 0% | 31% | +0.31 |
| 28/01/2026 | 4th | 125/1 | 0% | 77% | +0.77 |
| 29/05/2026 | 4th | 9/1 | 53% | 70% | +0.17 |
| 12/07/2026 | 7th | 13/2 | 66% | 40% | -0.26 |