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10

Mystic Rose

4yo Filly · 9-6 · OR 50

Sligo · Rockshore Cider Handicap (0-60) · 1m 5f 56y

#10

Rank

Odds

20/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#10

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

20/1 and cheekpieces on first time, creditable third of 11 in handicap at Dundalk (1½m) 24 days ago. Claims if she can build on that for in-form stable.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength45%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 5.7 /10 (raw 8.2)

Highest class: BHA50
Recent avg: C5.4
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Tipperary 03/07/2025 · Pos 12th of 14 · OR - · 2m Goo 1473/07C8BHA65 @ Galway 01/08/2025 · Pos 15th of 16 · OR 65 · 1m98y Yie 136 · below its mark01/08/2025 · OR 65 parBHA60 @ Navan 30/03/2026 · Pos 6th of 12 · OR 60 · 1m6f Hvy 129 · beat its mark30/03/2026 · OR 60 par30/0360OR 60BHA59 @ Bellewstown 11/04/2026 · Pos 4th of 12 · OR 59 · 1m3f90y Sft 129 · beat its mark11/04/2026 · OR 59 parBHA57 @ Gowran Park 22/04/2026 · Pos 10th of 13 · OR 57 · 1m5f160y Sft 139 · beat its mark22/04/2026 · OR 57 par22/0457OR 57BHA54 @ Listowel 31/05/2026 · Pos 7th of 11 · OR 54 · 2m40y Goo 123 · beat its mark31/05/2026 · OR 54 parBHA52 @ Navan 07/06/2026 · Pos 5th of 14 · OR 52 · 1m5f Goo 134 · beat its mark07/06/2026 · OR 52 par7/0652OR 52BHA51 @ Bellewstown 02/07/2026 · Pos 5th of 12 · OR 51 · 1m6f109y Gd 133 · beat its mark02/07/2026 · OR 51 parBHA50 @ Dundalk 12/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 11 · OR 50 · 1m4f Std 123 · beat its mark12/07/2026 · OR 50 par12/0750OR 50projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 17
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-12DundalkBHA503rd3rd0
2026-07-02BellewstownBHA515th5th0
2026-06-07NavanBHA525th5th0
2026-05-31ListowelBHA547th7th0
2026-04-22Gowran ParkBHA5710th10th0
2026-04-11BellewstownBHA594th4th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today3/0711/047/0612/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 17
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength76%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 6th of 17. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
03/07/202512th10/147%15%-0.32
01/08/202515th66/10%7%+0.07
30/03/20266th66/10%55%+0.55
11/04/20264th28/10%73%+0.73
22/04/202610th22/10%25%+0.25
31/05/20267th22/10%40%+0.40
07/06/20265th20/10%69%+0.69
02/07/20265th10/147%64%+0.16
12/07/20263rd20/10%80%+0.80