IvyArcIvyArc
13

Piatra Neamt

5yo Mare · 9-1 · OR 45

Sligo · Rockshore Cider Handicap (0-60) · 1m 5f 56y

#15

Rank

Odds

50/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#15

★★ Timeform

Commentary

50/1 and visored first time, fifth of 16 in handicap at Roscommon (1½m, good to soft) 79 days ago, helped by being held up in strongly-run race. Cheekpieces back on. Needs to build on that now.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength14%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 11.2 /10 (raw 10.2)

Highest class: BHA46
Recent avg: C5.6
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Galway 28/10/2024 · Pos 5th of 13 · OR - · 7f Hvy 12928/10C8C8 @ Killarney 15/07/2025 · Pos 6th of 6 · OR - · 1m30y Yie 130C8 @ Gowran Park 02/09/2025 · Pos 14th of 16 · OR - · 7f Goo 1332/09C8C8 @ Punchestown 16/09/2025 · Pos 9th of 14 · OR - · 1m1f58y Goo 134BHA55 @ Navan 08/10/2025 · Pos 6th of 17 · OR 55 · 1m2f30y Yie 139 · beat its mark08/10/2025 · OR 55 par8/1055OR 55BHA54 @ Galway 27/10/2025 · Pos 18th of 18 · OR 54 · 1m3f180y Hvy 136 · below its mark27/10/2025 · OR 54 parBHA52 @ Limerick 25/04/2026 · Pos 15th of 16 · OR 52 · 1m3f190y Yie 134 · beat its mark25/04/2026 · OR 52 par25/0452OR 52BHA51 @ Ballinrobe 08/05/2026 · Pos 14th of 14 · OR 51 · 1m1f133y Goo 133 · below its mark08/05/2026 · OR 51 parBHA46 @ Roscommon 18/05/2026 · Pos 5th of 16 · OR 46 · 1m4f17y Yie 128 · beat its mark18/05/2026 · OR 46 par18/0546OR 46projClass-projected finish: 13th of 17
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-05-18RoscommonBHA465th5th0
2026-05-08BallinrobeBHA5114th14th0
2026-04-25LimerickBHA5215th15th0
2025-10-27GalwayBHA5418th18th0
2025-10-08NavanBHA556th6th0
2025-09-16Punchestown?9th9th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today28/1016/0925/0418/05
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish15th of 17
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength32%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 15th of 17. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
28/10/20245th66/10%67%+0.67
15/07/20256th17/255%0%-0.55
02/09/202514th150/10%13%+0.13
16/09/20259th100/10%38%+0.38
08/10/20256th66/10%69%+0.69
27/10/202518th16/116%0%-0.16
25/04/202615th25/10%7%+0.07
08/05/202614th33/10%0%0.00
18/05/20265th50/10%73%+0.73