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Young Churchill

5yo Gelding · 10-2 · OR 60

Sligo · Rockshore Cider Handicap (0-60) · 1m 5f 56y

#8

Rank

Odds

6/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#8

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Best run for current yard when a solid third of 12 in handicap at Limerick (12.3f, good to firm) last month. Showed enough to think he's still in form when seventh of 15 at Killarney (11.5f, good) 4 days later. Enters calculations.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength8%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 7.2 /10 (raw 5.3)

Highest class: BHA60
Recent avg: C6.8
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Roscommon 07/07/2025 · Pos 1st of 12 · OR 116 · 1m7f204y Gd 154 · beat its mark07/07/2025 · OR 116 par7/07C8OR 116C8 @ Ballinrobe 21/07/2025 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 77 · 1m4f184y Goo 135 · below its mark21/07/2025 · OR 77 parC8 @ Clonmel 11/09/2025 · Pos 7th of 12 · OR 75 · 1m1f130y Yie 135 · below its mark11/09/2025 · OR 75 par11/09C8OR 75C8 @ Thurles 09/10/2025 · Pos 10th of 11 · OR 71 · 2m66y Goo 142 · below its mark09/10/2025 · OR 71 parC8 @ Fairyhouse 29/11/2025 · Pos 6th of 6 · OR 117 · 2m4f110y Yie 154 · below its mark29/11/2025 · OR 117 par29/11C8OR 117BHA68 @ Dundalk 28/01/2026 · Pos 7th of 7 · OR 68 · 1m2f150y Std 128 · below its mark28/01/2026 · OR 68 parBHA64 @ Navan 30/03/2026 · Pos 10th of 12 · OR 64 · 1m6f Hvy 134 · below its mark30/03/2026 · OR 64 par30/0364OR 64BHA60 @ Limerick 11/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 12 · OR 60 · 1m4f65y Gd 142 · beat its mark11/07/2026 · OR 60 parBHA60 @ Killarney 15/07/2026 · Pos 7th of 15 · OR 60 · 1m3f103y Gd 142 · beat its mark15/07/2026 · OR 60 par15/0760OR 60projClass-projected finish: 9th of 17
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-15KillarneyBHA607th7th0
2026-07-11LimerickBHA603rd3rd0
2026-03-30NavanBHA6410th10th0
2026-01-28DundalkBHA687th7th0
2025-11-29Fairyhouse?6th6th0
2025-10-09Thurles?10th10th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today7/079/1030/0315/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 17
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 17. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
07/07/20251st6/594%100%+0.06
21/07/20254th10/1195%50%-0.45
11/09/20257th11/271%45%-0.26
09/10/202510th33/10%10%+0.10
29/11/20256th33/10%0%0.00
28/01/20267th50/10%0%0.00
30/03/202610th40/10%18%+0.18
11/07/20263rd22/10%82%+0.82
15/07/20267th6/168%57%-0.11