Her Own Shadow
3yo Filly · 8-5 · OR 59
Thistledown · Race 1 - Claiming · 6f
#1
Rank
Odds
11/8
Win Prob
42%
Place Prob
32%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 1.9 /10 (raw 3.8)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-15 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-15 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | -2th | +3 |
| 2026-05-28 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 1st | +3 |
| 2025-10-09 | Thistledown | ? | 8th | 4th | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 1st of 10. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/10/2025 | 8th | 9/1 | 53% | 0% | -0.53 |
| 28/05/2026 | 4th | 5/2 | 87% | 57% | -0.30 |
| 15/06/2026 | 1st | 13/8 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 15/07/2026 | 2nd | 11/8 | 93% | 80% | -0.13 |