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8

Jilly Runs Deep

4yo Filly · 8-11 · OR 49

Thistledown · Race 1 - Claiming · 6f

#2

Rank

Odds

7/2

Win Prob

26%

Place Prob

25%

Rank

#2

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▼2
Strength76%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Finished in the top 3 in 4 of 5 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 1.0 /10 (raw 2.3)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.9
Today:
Class gap: +1.6
Higher-class runs: 5
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Thistledown 12/08/2025 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR - · 6f 119 · HIGHER CLASS12/08C6C6 @ Thistledown 02/09/2025 · Pos 2nd of 4 · OR 50 · 5f110y 118 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark02/09/2025 · OR 50 par2/09C6OR 50C6 @ Thistledown 08/10/2025 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 50 · 6f Gd 119 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark08/10/2025 · OR 50 par8/10C6OR 50C6 @ Mahoning Valley 06/11/2025 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 49 · 1m Fas 124 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark06/11/2025 · OR 49 par6/11C6OR 49C5 @ Mahoning Valley 25/11/2025 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 51 · 6f Slo 124 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark25/11/2025 · OR 51 par25/11C5OR 51C5 @ Mahoning Valley 09/12/2025 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 55 · 1m Fas 123 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark09/12/2025 · OR 55 par9/12C5OR 55C8 @ Thistledown 20/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 51 · 6f 119 · beat its mark20/07/2026 · OR 51 par20/07C8OR 51projClass-projected finish: 1st of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-20Thistledown?1st1st0
2025-12-09Mahoning Valley?3rd0th+3
2025-11-25Mahoning Valley?4th1st+3
2025-11-06Mahoning Valley?1st-1th+2
2025-10-08Thistledown?3rd1st+2
2025-09-02Thistledown?2nd0th+2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today12/086/1120/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 10
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▲
Strength84%

What the projection says

Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 2nd of 10. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
12/08/20252nd4/179%83%+0.04
02/09/20252nd4/696%67%-0.30
08/10/20253rd5/287%60%-0.27
06/11/20251st4/797%100%+0.03
25/11/20254th7/163%50%-0.13
09/12/20253rd11/486%67%-0.19
20/07/20261st7/282%100%+0.18