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4

Lil Sharpie

3yo Filly · 8-3 · OR 57

Thistledown · Race 1 - Claiming · 6f

#10

Rank

Odds

7/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#10

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▼2
Strength75%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 4 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.7 /10 (raw 3.9)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.0
Today:
Class gap: +1.5
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Mahoning Valley 18/11/2025 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR 57 · 6f 122 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark18/11/2025 · OR 57 par18/11C6OR 57C6 @ Mahoning Valley 19/12/2025 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 59 · 6f 122 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark19/12/2025 · OR 59 parC6 @ Mahoning Valley 05/01/2026 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 96 · 6f 122 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark05/01/2026 · OR 96 par5/01C6OR 96C6 @ Mahoning Valley 04/02/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 30 · 6f Slo 122 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark04/02/2026 · OR 30 parC5 @ Mahoning Valley 26/02/2026 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR 43 · 1m 118 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark26/02/2026 · OR 43 par26/02C5OR 43C5 @ Mahoning Valley 16/03/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 42 · 6f 116 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark16/03/2026 · OR 42 parC5 @ Mahoning Valley 08/04/2026 · Pos 5th of 6 · OR 44 · 6f Fas 118 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark08/04/2026 · OR 44 par8/04C5OR 44C8 @ Thistledown 20/04/2026 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR 49 · 6f 117 · beat its mark20/04/2026 · OR 49 parC8 @ Thistledown 12/05/2026 · Pos 9th of 10 · OR 54 · 6f Fas 117 · below its mark12/05/2026 · OR 54 par12/05C8OR 54projClass-projected finish: 7th of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-05-12Thistledown?9th9th0
2026-04-20Thistledown?4th4th0
2026-04-08Mahoning Valley?5th2nd+3
2026-03-16Mahoning Valley?1st-2th+3
2026-02-26Mahoning Valley?4th1st+3
2026-02-04Mahoning Valley?1st-1th+2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today18/114/028/0412/05
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 10
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▼
Strength48%

What the projection says

Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 8th of 10. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
18/11/20254th9/153%40%-0.13
19/12/20254th14/126%50%+0.24
05/01/20263rd10/147%71%+0.24
04/02/20261st5/174%100%+0.26
26/02/20264th7/282%40%-0.42
16/03/20261st15/261%100%+0.39
08/04/20265th12/137%20%-0.17
20/04/20264th14/126%57%+0.31
12/05/20269th7/163%11%-0.52