7
Mobil Ensign
4yo Filly · 8-7 · OR 70
Thistledown · Race 1 - Claiming · 6f
#6
Rank
Odds
14/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▼1
Strength64%
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.5 /10 (raw 3.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.3
Today:
Class gap: +1.3
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-23 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-12 | Thistledown | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-04-20 | Thistledown | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-03-25 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 4th | 1st | +3 |
| 2026-03-09 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 2nd | -1th | +3 |
| 2026-02-24 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 5th | 2nd | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 10
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▲
Strength48%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 10. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/05/2025 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 50% | -0.03 |
| 10/06/2025 | 4th | 13/2 | 66% | 25% | -0.41 |
| 01/07/2025 | 5th | 7/1 | 63% | 20% | -0.43 |
| 24/02/2026 | 5th | 25/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 09/03/2026 | 2nd | 33/1 | 0% | 86% | +0.86 |
| 25/03/2026 | 4th | 7/2 | 82% | 40% | -0.42 |
| 20/04/2026 | 7th | 8/1 | 58% | 14% | -0.44 |
| 12/05/2026 | 8th | 20/1 | 0% | 22% | +0.22 |
| 23/06/2026 | 3rd | 14/1 | 26% | 60% | +0.34 |