1
Over The Falls
4yo Filly · 8-9 · OR 48
Thistledown · Race 1 - Claiming · 6f
#3
Rank
Odds
5/2
Win Prob
17%
Place Prob
20%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength53%
What the class read says
Favourable class profile — form adjusted for the quality of opposition looks competitive here. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 1.7 /10 (raw 2.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.1
Today:
Class gap: +0.4
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-21 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-29 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-08 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-05-25 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-04-27 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-10-03 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 1st | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 10
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▲
Strength83%
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 3rd of 10. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/05/2025 | 6th | 6/1 | 68% | 44% | -0.24 |
| 02/09/2025 | 1st | 11/8 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 16/09/2025 | 4th | 6/1 | 68% | 40% | -0.28 |
| 03/10/2025 | 4th | 7/2 | 82% | 0% | -0.82 |
| 27/04/2026 | 2nd | 7/4 | 91% | 75% | -0.16 |
| 25/05/2026 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 80% | -0.02 |
| 08/06/2026 | 1st | 11/8 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 29/06/2026 | 2nd | 6/4 | 92% | 75% | -0.17 |
| 21/07/2026 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 83% | -0.04 |