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2

Spun In Dominus

3yo Filly · 8-3 · OR 64

Thistledown · Race 1 - Claiming · 6f

#4

Rank

Odds

2/1

Win Prob

14%

Place Prob

18%

Rank

#4

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▼2
Strength79%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Finished in the top 3 in 3 of 4 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.1 /10 (raw 3.4)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.8
Today:
Class gap: +1.7
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Thistledown 25/08/2025 · Pos 4th of 10 · OR - · 5f110y 118 · HIGHER CLASS25/08C6C6 @ Thistledown 10/09/2025 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 49 · 5f110y 118 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark10/09/2025 · OR 49 par10/09C6OR 49C5 @ Thistledown 09/10/2025 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 55 · 6f Fas 118 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark09/10/2025 · OR 55 par9/10C5OR 55C5 @ Mahoning Valley 19/03/2026 · Pos 8th of 8 · OR 63 · 6f 118 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark19/03/2026 · OR 63 par19/03C5OR 63C5 @ Thistledown 11/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 60 · 5f110y 115 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark11/05/2026 · OR 60 par11/05C5OR 60C8 @ Thistledown 02/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 58 · 5f110y Fas 119 · below its mark02/06/2026 · OR 58 par2/06C8OR 58C8 @ Thistledown 23/06/2026 · Pos 5th of 6 · OR 60 · 6f Fas 117 · below its mark23/06/2026 · OR 60 par23/06C8OR 60projClass-projected finish: 6th of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-06-23Thistledown?5th5th0
2026-06-02Thistledown?3rd3rd0
2026-05-11Thistledown?1st-2th+3
2026-03-19Mahoning Valley?8th4th+3
2025-10-09Thistledown?2nd-2th+3
2025-09-10Thistledown?1st-1th+2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today25/0819/0323/06
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 10
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength41%

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 10. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
25/08/20254th11/486%67%-0.19
10/09/20251st6/492%100%+0.08
09/10/20252nd4/179%86%+0.07
19/03/20268th14/126%0%-0.26
11/05/20261st6/492%100%+0.08
02/06/20263rd11/1094%67%-0.28
23/06/20265th2/189%20%-0.69