6
Vertisalute
5yo Mare · 8-7 · OR 59
Thistledown · Race 1 - Claiming · 6f
#5
Rank
Odds
5/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
3%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▼1
Strength68%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.2 /10 (raw 3.4)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.7
Today:
Class gap: +0.8
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-15 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-01 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-22 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 1st | +3 |
| 2025-10-10 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-09-02 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-08-06 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | -2th | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 10
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength36%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/05/2025 | 3rd | 16/1 | 16% | 67% | +0.51 |
| 24/06/2025 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 88% | +0.16 |
| 14/07/2025 | 3rd | 7/2 | 82% | 67% | -0.15 |
| 06/08/2025 | 1st | 11/4 | 86% | 100% | +0.14 |
| 02/09/2025 | 2nd | 6/5 | 94% | 75% | -0.19 |
| 10/10/2025 | 3rd | 11/4 | 86% | 67% | -0.19 |
| 22/06/2026 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 25% | -0.12 |
| 01/07/2026 | 4th | 9/1 | 53% | 25% | -0.28 |
| 15/07/2026 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 60% | -0.14 |