IvyArcIvyArc
10

Watch Me Daddy

4yo Filly · 8-7 · OR 52

Thistledown · Race 1 - Claiming · 6f

#9

Rank

Odds

11/2

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#9

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength51%

What the class read says

Favourable class profile — form adjusted for the quality of opposition looks competitive here. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.2 /10 (raw 3.1)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.1
Today:
Class gap: +0.4
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Mahoning Valley 21/11/2024 · Pos 5th of 9 · OR 46 · 6f Slo 122 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark21/11/2024 · OR 46 par21/11C6OR 46C6 @ Mahoning Valley 09/12/2024 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 37 · 6f Slo 122 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark09/12/2024 · OR 37 parC6 @ Mahoning Valley 26/12/2024 · Pos 4th of 10 · OR 38 · 6f Slo 122 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark26/12/2024 · OR 38 par26/12C6OR 38C8 @ Thistledown 30/09/2025 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 51 · 5f110y 115 · beat its mark30/09/2025 · OR 51 parC5 @ Mahoning Valley 23/10/2025 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR 46 · 6f 121 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark23/10/2025 · OR 46 par23/10C5OR 46C8 @ Mahoning Valley 03/11/2025 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 46 · 1m Fas 122 · beat its mark03/11/2025 · OR 46 parC8 @ Mahoning Valley 17/11/2025 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 46 · 6f 122 · beat its mark17/11/2025 · OR 46 par17/11C8OR 46C8 @ Mahoning Valley 20/12/2025 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 48 · 6f Gd 123 · beat its mark20/12/2025 · OR 48 parC8 @ Thistledown 15/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR 52 · 5f110y 119 · below its mark15/07/2026 · OR 52 par15/07C8OR 52projClass-projected finish: 4th of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-15Thistledown?4th4th0
2025-12-20Mahoning Valley?1st1st0
2025-11-17Mahoning Valley?2nd2nd0
2025-11-03Mahoning Valley?2nd2nd0
2025-10-23Mahoning Valley?5th2nd+3
2025-09-30Thistledown?2nd2nd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today21/1130/0917/1115/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 10
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▲
Strength80%

What the projection says

Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 7th of 10. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
21/11/20245th9/488%50%-0.38
09/12/20244th9/276%50%-0.26
26/12/20244th10/147%67%+0.19
30/09/20252nd6/492%83%-0.09
23/10/20255th14/126%43%+0.17
03/11/20252nd10/382%88%+0.05
17/11/20252nd5/174%83%+0.10
20/12/20251st10/382%100%+0.18
15/07/20264th11/271%40%-0.31