1
Hello Evelyn
4yo Filly · 8-7 · OR 36
Thistledown · Race 2 - Allowance · 5f 110y
#5
Rank
Odds
16/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength20%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 5.1 /10 (raw 3.9)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.5
Today:
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-01 | Thistledown | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-15 | Thistledown | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-11 | Thistledown | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-04-20 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-03-30 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2025-12-29 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 6th | 7th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 7
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength43%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 6th of 7. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/10/2025 | 3rd | 15/2 | 61% | 60% | -0.01 |
| 20/11/2025 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 88% | +0.06 |
| 08/12/2025 | 3rd | 5/4 | 93% | 71% | -0.22 |
| 29/12/2025 | 6th | 2/1 | 89% | 17% | -0.73 |
| 30/03/2026 | 3rd | 6/1 | 68% | 75% | +0.07 |
| 20/04/2026 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 11/05/2026 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 15/06/2026 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 33% | +0.18 |
| 01/07/2026 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 43% | +0.27 |