7
Loco Coco
3yo Filly · 8-3 · OR 33
Thistledown · Race 2 - Allowance · 5f 110y
#4
Rank
Odds
13/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲1
Strength22%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.4 /10 (raw 4.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.9
Today:
Class gap: -0.9
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-20 | Thistledown | ? | 5th | 8th | −3 |
| 2026-07-01 | Thistledown | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-05-28 | Thistledown | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-05-07 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-04-20 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-03-30 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 7
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength77%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 7.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/02/2026 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 40% | -0.34 |
| 19/02/2026 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 67% | +0.40 |
| 02/03/2026 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 0% | -0.16 |
| 30/03/2026 | 3rd | 13/2 | 66% | 71% | +0.06 |
| 20/04/2026 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 40% | +0.14 |
| 07/05/2026 | 1st | 16/1 | 16% | 100% | +0.84 |
| 28/05/2026 | 7th | 16/1 | 16% | 14% | -0.02 |
| 01/07/2026 | 6th | 14/1 | 26% | 29% | +0.02 |
| 20/07/2026 | 5th | 13/2 | 66% | 43% | -0.23 |