4
Mandalay Sky
3yo Filly · 8-3 · OR 51
Thistledown · Race 2 - Allowance · 5f 110y
#6
Rank
Odds
11/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength21%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 3.0 /10 (raw 3.1)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.2
Today:
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-20 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-15 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-28 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-11 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-04-20 | Thistledown | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-03-18 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 7
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength73%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 5th of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/10/2025 | 4th | 9/1 | 53% | 25% | -0.28 |
| 20/10/2025 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 40% | +0.24 |
| 18/03/2026 | 1st | 16/1 | 16% | 100% | +0.84 |
| 20/04/2026 | 5th | 15/2 | 61% | 33% | -0.27 |
| 11/05/2026 | 3rd | 16/1 | 16% | 75% | +0.59 |
| 28/05/2026 | 2nd | 6/1 | 68% | 86% | +0.17 |
| 15/06/2026 | 3rd | 10/3 | 82% | 67% | -0.16 |
| 20/07/2026 | 3rd | 11/2 | 71% | 60% | -0.11 |