6
Mo Swift
4yo Filly · 8-7 · OR 55
Thistledown · Race 2 - Allowance · 5f 110y
#3
Rank
Odds
13/8
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
8%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲1
Strength14%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 4.1 /10 (raw 2.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.1
Today:
Class gap: -1.1
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-20 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 5th | −3 |
| 2025-09-01 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-02-26 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2025-02-10 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2025-01-15 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 6th | 7th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 7
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength68%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 7.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/01/2025 | 6th | 6/1 | 68% | 0% | -0.68 |
| 10/02/2025 | 2nd | 6/1 | 68% | 86% | +0.17 |
| 26/02/2025 | 1st | 5/4 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 01/09/2025 | 3rd | 6/4 | 92% | 0% | -0.92 |
| 20/07/2026 | 2nd | 13/8 | 91% | 86% | -0.06 |