5
Austrian Navy
8yo Mare · 8-9 · OR 83
Thistledown · Race 3 - Allowance · 6f
#4
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 4.1 /10 (raw 2.9)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.4
Today:
Class gap: -1.4
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-14 | Thistledown | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-06-30 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 4th | −3 |
| 2026-06-02 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-05-18 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 5th | −3 |
| 2026-04-26 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-03-20 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 5
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength28%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 5. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/10/2025 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |
| 08/02/2026 | 9th | 20/1 | 0% | 27% | +0.27 |
| 21/02/2026 | 7th | 12/1 | 37% | 25% | -0.12 |
| 20/03/2026 | 1st | 12/1 | 37% | 100% | +0.63 |
| 26/04/2026 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |
| 18/05/2026 | 2nd | 5/4 | 93% | 75% | -0.18 |
| 02/06/2026 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 30/06/2026 | 1st | 7/4 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 14/07/2026 | 6th | 10/1 | 47% | 0% | -0.47 |