1
Az We Speak
5yo Mare · 8-9 · OR 82
Thistledown · Race 3 - Allowance · 6f
#2
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
3%
Place Prob
14%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength43%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.6 /10 (raw 2.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C4.8
Today:
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-22 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-05-07 | Thistledown | ? | 7th | 6th | +1 |
| 2026-03-30 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-03-09 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-02-24 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-05-08 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 5
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▼
Strength67%
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 2nd of 5. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/12/2024 | 1st | 13/8 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 29/01/2025 | 1st | 6/1 | 68% | 100% | +0.32 |
| 01/03/2025 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 08/05/2025 | 3rd | 14/1 | 26% | 75% | +0.49 |
| 24/02/2026 | 4th | 6/1 | 68% | 40% | -0.28 |
| 09/03/2026 | 4th | 7/2 | 82% | 50% | -0.32 |
| 30/03/2026 | 4th | 15/2 | 61% | 40% | -0.21 |
| 07/05/2026 | 7th | 20/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |
| 22/06/2026 | 1st | 6/1 | 68% | 100% | +0.32 |