City Scene
5yo Mare · 8-7 · OR 96
Thistledown · Race 3 - Allowance · 6f
#1
Rank
Odds
7/4
Win Prob
97%
Place Prob
81%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 2 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.1 /10 (raw 1.9)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-14 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-19 | Churchill Downs | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-04-22 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-10-02 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 0th | +1 |
| 2025-09-04 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
| 2025-07-08 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 1st of 5. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/04/2025 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 22/05/2025 | 1st | 11/10 | 94% | 100% | +0.06 |
| 09/06/2025 | 3rd | 1/1 | 95% | 67% | -0.28 |
| 08/07/2025 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |
| 04/09/2025 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 80% | -0.06 |
| 02/10/2025 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 22/04/2026 | 2nd | 1/1 | 95% | 75% | -0.20 |
| 19/06/2026 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 60% | +0.23 |
| 14/07/2026 | 4th | 7/4 | 91% | 40% | -0.51 |