3
Key To Success
6yo Mare · 8-7 · OR 89
Thistledown · Race 3 - Allowance · 6f
#3
Rank
Odds
9/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
3%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.0 /10 (raw 3.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.8
Today:
Class gap: -0.8
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-14 | Thistledown | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-21 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-04-30 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 7th | 8th | −1 |
| 2026-04-17 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-04-04 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 3rd | 6th | −3 |
| 2026-03-20 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 6th | 8th | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 5
▲ EDGING AHEADslightly over its price
Trend▼
Strength53%
What the projection says
Edging in front of its market price lately. Projected 3rd of 5. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/12/2025 | 10th | 10/1 | 47% | 0% | -0.47 |
| 08/02/2026 | 9th | 25/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 21/02/2026 | 2nd | 25/1 | 0% | 88% | +0.88 |
| 20/03/2026 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 04/04/2026 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 71% | +0.24 |
| 17/04/2026 | 2nd | 16/1 | 16% | 86% | +0.70 |
| 30/04/2026 | 7th | 10/1 | 47% | 14% | -0.33 |
| 21/05/2026 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |
| 14/07/2026 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 20% | -0.33 |