1
Jim's River Runner
6yo Gelding · 8-7 · OR 65
Thistledown · Race 4 - Claiming · 6f
#8
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#8
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength28%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.8 /10 (raw 4.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-14 | Thistledown | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-23 | Thistledown | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-04-22 | Thistledown | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-04-02 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-03-23 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-03-10 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 8
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 8th of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/12/2025 | 7th | 12/1 | 37% | 0% | -0.37 |
| 03/02/2026 | 1st | 25/1 | 0% | 100% | +1.00 |
| 19/02/2026 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 43% | +0.27 |
| 10/03/2026 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 57% | +0.31 |
| 23/03/2026 | 2nd | 10/3 | 82% | 83% | +0.01 |
| 02/04/2026 | 5th | 9/2 | 76% | 20% | -0.56 |
| 22/04/2026 | 7th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 23/06/2026 | 6th | 9/1 | 53% | 29% | -0.24 |
| 14/07/2026 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |