4
Merger
4yo Gelding · 8-7 · OR 60
Thistledown · Race 4 - Claiming · 6f
#7
Rank
Odds
25/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength24%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.7 /10 (raw 5.2)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-14 | Thistledown | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-06-22 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-08 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-13 | Thistledown | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-04-22 | Thistledown | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-10-10 | Thistledown | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 8
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▬
Strength6%
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 7th of 8.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/07/2025 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 83% | +0.02 |
| 07/08/2025 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 25/08/2025 | 6th | 9/4 | 88% | 38% | -0.51 |
| 10/10/2025 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 38% | +0.01 |
| 22/04/2026 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 33% | +0.18 |
| 13/05/2026 | 9th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 08/06/2026 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 25% | -0.49 |
| 22/06/2026 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 40% | +0.14 |
| 14/07/2026 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 29% | +0.29 |