Oklahoma Joe
6yo Gelding · 8-9 · OR 74
Thistledown · Race 4 - Claiming · 6f
#4
Rank
Odds
5/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
4%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.2 /10 (raw 4.0)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-13 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-07-01 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-22 | Thistledown | ? | 8th | 5th | +3 |
| 2026-05-21 | Thistledown | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-05-02 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 0th | +3 |
| 2026-04-22 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 8. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/02/2026 | 7th | 11/2 | 71% | 0% | -0.71 |
| 25/03/2026 | 2nd | 15/8 | 90% | 75% | -0.15 |
| 10/04/2026 | 5th | 9/2 | 76% | 20% | -0.56 |
| 22/04/2026 | 4th | 4/6 | 96% | 25% | -0.71 |
| 02/05/2026 | 4th | 20/1 | 0% | 70% | +0.70 |
| 21/05/2026 | 6th | 5/1 | 74% | 17% | -0.57 |
| 22/06/2026 | 8th | 12/1 | 37% | 0% | -0.37 |
| 01/07/2026 | 1st | 6/5 | 94% | 100% | +0.06 |
| 13/07/2026 | 4th | 5/2 | 87% | 40% | -0.47 |