5
Ollie's Folly
5yo Gelding · 8-11 · OR 78
Thistledown · Race 4 - Claiming · 6f
#3
Rank
Odds
9/4
Win Prob
4%
Place Prob
12%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength44%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.0 /10 (raw 3.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-14 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-23 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-02 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-13 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-04-27 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-03-27 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 8
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength73%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 8.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/01/2026 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 19/02/2026 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 86% | +0.04 |
| 13/03/2026 | 6th | 10/3 | 82% | 17% | -0.66 |
| 27/03/2026 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 27/04/2026 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |
| 13/05/2026 | 2nd | 7/4 | 91% | 80% | -0.11 |
| 02/06/2026 | 3rd | 15/8 | 90% | 60% | -0.30 |
| 23/06/2026 | 4th | 7/2 | 82% | 50% | -0.32 |
| 14/07/2026 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |