Red Head Kid
7yo Gelding · 8-7 · OR 75
Thistledown · Race 4 - Claiming · 6f
#5
Rank
Odds
13/8
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.6 /10 (raw 4.5)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-14 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-23 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-02 | Thistledown | ? | 0 | ||
| 2026-04-28 | Thistledown | ? | 5th | 2nd | +3 |
| 2026-04-10 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2026-03-27 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 4th | 1st | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/11/2025 | 8th | 9/1 | 53% | 13% | -0.40 |
| 08/12/2025 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 04/02/2026 | 8th | 7/1 | 63% | 22% | -0.41 |
| 20/02/2026 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 80% | +0.04 |
| 27/03/2026 | 4th | 7/1 | 63% | 57% | -0.06 |
| 10/04/2026 | 6th | 11/8 | 93% | 0% | -0.93 |
| 28/04/2026 | 5th | 7/1 | 63% | 0% | -0.63 |
| 23/06/2026 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 86% | +0.00 |
| 14/07/2026 | 3rd | 13/8 | 91% | 67% | -0.25 |