8
Social History
5yo Gelding · 8-7 · OR 75
Thistledown · Race 4 - Claiming · 6f
#1
Rank
Odds
9/2
Win Prob
17%
Place Prob
26%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength36%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.7 /10 (raw 3.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-14 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-10 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-18 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-04-27 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-10-07 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-09-16 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 8
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength46%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/06/2025 | 3rd | 7/1 | 63% | 75% | +0.12 |
| 15/07/2025 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 06/08/2025 | 2nd | 10/3 | 82% | 83% | +0.01 |
| 16/09/2025 | 1st | 13/8 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 07/10/2025 | 1st | 11/10 | 94% | 100% | +0.06 |
| 27/04/2026 | 4th | 7/2 | 82% | 40% | -0.42 |
| 18/05/2026 | 3rd | 9/4 | 88% | 71% | -0.17 |
| 10/06/2026 | 3rd | 7/1 | 63% | 60% | -0.03 |
| 14/07/2026 | 4th | 9/2 | 76% | 50% | -0.26 |