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Drill Blitz

4yo Filly · 8-7 · OR 62

Thistledown · Race 5 - Claiming · 5f 110y

#3

Rank

Odds

7/2

Win Prob

4%

Place Prob

13%

Rank

#3

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▼1
Strength73%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Finished in the top 3 in 3 of 3 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.0 /10 (raw 3.3)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.3
Today:
Class gap: +1.3
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Thistledown 11/08/2025 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 49 · 6f Fas 115 · beat its mark11/08/2025 · OR 49 par11/08C8OR 49C8 @ Thistledown 28/08/2025 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 52 · 6f 115 · beat its mark28/08/2025 · OR 52 parC8 @ Thistledown 16/09/2025 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 54 · 5f110y 115 · beat its mark16/09/2025 · OR 54 par16/09C8OR 54C8 @ Thistledown 10/10/2025 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 54 · 6f 119 · beat its mark10/10/2025 · OR 54 parC8 @ Mahoning Valley 27/10/2025 · Pos 7th of 12 · OR 54 · 6f 121 · below its mark27/10/2025 · OR 54 par27/10C8OR 54C8 @ Mahoning Valley 07/04/2026 · Pos 3rd of 5 · OR 58 · 6f 124 · below its mark07/04/2026 · OR 58 parC5 @ Thistledown 20/04/2026 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 63 · 5f110y 119 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark20/04/2026 · OR 63 par20/04C5OR 63C5 @ Thistledown 01/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 60 · 6f 119 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark01/07/2026 · OR 60 parC5 @ Thistledown 20/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 61 · 6f 119 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark20/07/2026 · OR 61 par20/07C5OR 61projClass-projected finish: 1st of 7
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-20Thistledown?2nd-1th+3
2026-07-01Thistledown?2nd-1th+3
2026-04-20Thistledown?3rd0th+3
2026-04-07Mahoning Valley?3rd3rd0
2025-10-27Mahoning Valley?7th7th0
2025-10-10Thistledown?2nd2nd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today11/0810/1020/0420/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 7
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▼
Strength78%

What the projection says

Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 3rd of 7. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
11/08/20253rd12/137%71%+0.35
28/08/20253rd15/261%60%-0.01
16/09/20251st11/486%100%+0.14
10/10/20252nd15/261%80%+0.19
27/10/20257th12/137%45%+0.09
07/04/20263rd10/382%50%-0.32
20/04/20263rd5/174%67%-0.07
01/07/20262nd9/153%86%+0.33
20/07/20262nd7/282%80%-0.02