4
Driven For Success
6yo Mare · 8-7 · OR 67
Thistledown · Race 5 - Claiming · 5f 110y
#4
Rank
Odds
11/4
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
6%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength43%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.2 /10 (raw 3.4)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.1
Today:
Class gap: +0.4
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-14 | Thistledown | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-22 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-25 | Thistledown | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-12 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-10-15 | Thistledown | ? | 5th | 2nd | +3 |
| 2025-08-19 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 7
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength28%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/05/2025 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 40% | -0.39 |
| 11/06/2025 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 07/07/2025 | 2nd | 15/8 | 90% | 80% | -0.10 |
| 19/08/2025 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 15/10/2025 | 5th | 6/1 | 68% | 20% | -0.48 |
| 12/05/2026 | 2nd | 7/4 | 91% | 83% | -0.07 |
| 25/05/2026 | 5th | 15/8 | 90% | 20% | -0.70 |
| 22/06/2026 | 4th | 3/1 | 84% | 57% | -0.27 |
| 14/07/2026 | 5th | 11/4 | 86% | 20% | -0.66 |