Moon Event

4yo Filly · 8-11 · OR 52

Thistledown · Race 5 - Claiming · 5f 110y

Rank

Odds

11/4

Win Prob

Place Prob

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark

Move▼2

Strength72%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 3 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.5 /10 (raw 4.4)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C5.9

Today:

Class gap: +1.6

Higher-class runs: 3

Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-06-17	Thistledown	?	3rd	3rd	0	7.0
2026-04-20	Thistledown	?	4th	1st	+3	9.0
2026-03-16	Mahoning Valley	?	8th	5th	+3	5.0
2026-02-19	Mahoning Valley	?	2nd	2nd	0	8.0
2024-10-10	Thistledown	?	5th	1st	+3	8.6

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish7th of 7

▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price

Trend▲

Strength67%

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 7th of 7. Recent form is on the up.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
10/10/2024	5th	9/1	53%	20%	-0.33
19/02/2026	2nd	15/8	90%	75%	-0.15
16/03/2026	8th	7/2	82%	0%	-0.82
20/04/2026	4th	15/2	61%	50%	-0.11
17/06/2026	3rd	11/4	86%	71%	-0.14