7
Rosetta
4yo Filly · 8-11 · OR 46
Thistledown · Race 5 - Claiming · 5f 110y
#6
Rank
Odds
9/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength28%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.2 /10 (raw 4.2)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-21 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-01 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-09 | Thistledown | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-05-12 | Thistledown | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-01-21 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-01-05 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 7
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength79%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 7.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/10/2025 | 9th | 16/1 | 16% | 27% | +0.11 |
| 08/12/2025 | 3rd | 25/1 | 0% | 75% | +0.75 |
| 22/12/2025 | 7th | 12/1 | 37% | 0% | -0.37 |
| 05/01/2026 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 20% | -0.27 |
| 21/01/2026 | 6th | 15/2 | 61% | 17% | -0.44 |
| 12/05/2026 | 8th | 14/1 | 26% | 0% | -0.26 |
| 09/06/2026 | 7th | 16/1 | 16% | 0% | -0.16 |
| 01/07/2026 | 4th | 25/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 21/07/2026 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |